We should be very wary of the R value

12 May

At the end of last week, you may have seen some rather scary news: the R value, the average number of people infected by each person who has Covid-19, had gone back up. Professor John Edmunds of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine appeared before the Science and Technology Committee of the House of […]

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How likely are you to die of coronavirus?

1 Apr

The national conversation is dominated by coronavirus statistical models at the moment. The Imperial College model, the Oxford model, the other Imperial model.  I want to talk about the models, and what they tell us, because the outputs of these models drive the government’s response — and thousands of lives could turn on them. It’s […]

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